The Democrat's Biden Problem

This year's Democratic primaries were bizarre beyond belief. Normally someone who had served as Vice President would be a shoe-in for the nomination but this is the same party that disowned their 2000 Vice Presidential candidate. Biden began the race at the top then slid. By the Iowa caucus, he was behind in polling and in donations. Just from memory, I think he was 5th in both. He didn't do any better in New Hampshire. These two early contests are considered important because no candidate had won the presidency without winning one of these states. Some people write that off to coincidence but there's probably more to it than that. These are the states where the candidates spend months campaigning. The voters know the candidates better than those of any other state. So, regardless of these states having the wrong demographics, they are in a better position to judge the candidates. And they didn't care at all for Joe.

But after Bernie Sanders did well in several races, the party came together behind Biden. The more centrist candidates were pressured to drop out while Elizabeth Warren whose platform was nearly identical to Bernie's was left in the race. Super Tuesday came and Biden was suddenly the winning candidate. He even won in states where he hadn't been able to open a campaign headquarters (remember what I said about him placing 5th in fund-raising?).

Why did he win? Did a win in South Carolina suddenly wake the country to this dusty jewel in its midst? Hardly. People voted for him as the moderate alternative to Sanders. The reasoning was that anyone to the right of Sanders could win and Joe was a reliable moderate guy.

So, Joe Biden is the candidate and the Democrats are in a lot of trouble.

First, Biden only seems like a moderate because the party moved so far to the left. When it passed, Obamacare was seen as a huge step to the left and Biden's "moderate" position calls for expanding it. It's only moderate because the other candidates want to nationalize health care.

Obama was the furthest left president since FDR but he's now dismissed as a moderate by the party and Biden is seen as a moderate by association. Never mind that Joe was always to Barack's left. Joe is also seen as being moderate because he's been around for decades and the positions he championed in the 70s and 80s seem conservative today. But Biden has no fixed principles. He's always been to the left of the party. As the Democrats moved to the left, Joe moved with them.

Look at what he's done since effectively winning the nomination. He's named Beto (I'm comming for your guns) O'Rourke as point man on gun policy and appointed AOC to his panel on environmental policy.

Democrats are supposed to run to the left during the primaries and to the center for the general election. Hillary Clinton forgot that rule and lost the working-class white votes she needed to win.

In addition, the Democrats are already putting together plans for reshaping America when they take over both houses of Congress and the Presidency. And they're nor bothering to do it in secret.

All of this would be a hard sell in normal times but we are not in normal times. We just shut down the economy for months and are facing the highest unemployment numbers since the Great Depression. Voters tend to be more conservative during depressions. Yes, they will turn out a president if they believe that he caused the downturn but they are not in the mood for wrenching societal changes.

The Democrats are going to have a hard time blaming Trump for the economic downturn. That's because he's been a big cheerleader for reopening the economy. It's the Democrats who want to keep everything closed.

There is a gamble here. The Democrats are in the position of hoping that the COVID-19 virus continues to kill thousands and that there's a second spike in the Fall. You are in a bad place when you are hoping for thousands to die so you can win an election.

The Democrats may well lose this gamble. The states that opened first did not see a spike in infections and the more we learn about the virus the less scary it is. There's a natural curve that nearly all viruses take where they spike then vanish on their own without stay-at-home orders or vaccines. If COVID-19 follows that curve then we will see the states that opened first recovering first with no ill effects from the virus. This is still a big "if" but the Democrats have already committed themselves to COVID-19 being different from other viruses.

Then there's Joe Biden himself. He's old. He gets confused. He makes really terrible gaffes. Just last week a popular black talk-show host said that he had more questions for Biden and Joe shot back that anyone who still has questions "ain't really black". Joe is also really old. If he wins he'd start his first term older than Trump will be when he ends his second term.

But the biggest problem for the Democrats is that Biden was the "not Bernie" candidate. He didn't win the primaries because people wanted him. He won because he was the safe choice. Look at the fund-raising. Joe was way behind. Most of his support comes from his being "anyone but Trump". Trump on the other hand is very popular with his base. He's had a 90% approval rating among Republicans for years. And there's a 20% enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden. Trump voters are eager to go vote for him. He already set records for votes for an encumbrance in the primaries. Democrats are much less excited by Biden and many Bernie supporters are outraged at the way the primaries were manipulated to steal the nomination from Sanders.

This makes a big difference in who actually shows up to vote. The more motivated a voter is the more likely he will turn out to vote.

A final word about polls. Biden is currently way ahead of Trump. So was Clinton at this point. So was Romney in 2012. So was Kerry in 2004. And Trump is running strong in the states he needs to carry. States like California and New York muddy the polls because of the Electoral College.

There are rumors about the Democrats recognizing that Biden is an uninspiring candidate who can't beat Trump but they're stuck. Short of Biden having to withdraw for health concerns, there's no way to replace him without alienating even more voters.

The Political Divide on COVID-19

In the early days of the pandemic there was widespread panic but a general agreement on the measures needed to "flatten the curve". Since then the consensus has shattered with people breaking into two camps: one calling for restrictions to be lifted and the other calling for an indefinite extension to the shut-down orders. This illustrates a general divide in how the two groups view reality. Here's where the main differences are:

Appeal to Authority. The pro-shutdown people insist that we have to "believe the doctors". I'll address one major problem with that next but they are also selective in which doctors they want us to believe. This was obvious from an exchange between Senator and Doctor Rand Paul and Dr. Fauci in a Senate hearing. Sen. Paul has had the virus and since then has spent his spare time volunteering in hospitals, treating COVID-19 patients. That gives him first-hand experience with the virus that Dr. Fauci does not have. The exchange was fairly mild but the reporting on it made it seem outrageous that a Senator would question anything that Dr. Fauci says. One Blue-Check columnist made a joke about Paul acting like he's a doctor until someone pointed out Paul's medical degree.

Appeal to the Models: Shut-down orders were justified on models that predicted millions dead. Hospitals were predicted to be overflowing with shortages of doctors, beds, and ventilators. While this happened in a few cities, most notably New York City, it has not happened elsewhere. Even NYC was never totally overwhelmed. The hospital ship Comfort was sent to NYC to take overflow non-COVID-19 patients in order to free up more beds for the virus patients. It was barely used. Once supplies of ventilators were redistributed there were no shortages.

The models have been adjusted several times. The original Imperial University model predicted 2 million dead in the US. It was later adjusted down twice then back up some. The other models have been similarly wrong. In all, they have shown almost no relationship to actual cases or deaths. Regardless, the pro-shutdown people continue to point to the models in arguing for extending the lock-downs.

Disregard for Rights: The shut-down orders have been random and haphazard. In some cases they were based on relative risk. In others they were based on the idea that leaving home is so inherently dangerous that sales of any non-essential products should be forbidden. People have been arrested or ticketed for driving in their car or walking alone in a park. This is one of the biggest divides. On one side we have civil libertarians who cringe at such arbitrary infringement of basic rights and on the other side we have the scolds and the Karens who want to see crushed anyone who flouts authority.

There have been movements to require that the unelected health officials who have ordered shut-downs to answer to the elected officials. A bill to do this in Ohio was quickly shot down. The Wisconsin Supreme Court went the other way declaring that the state health official had overstepped his authority by extending the shutdown.

This has implications for the future. Once it's been accepted than an official can abridge civil rights in an emergency then the definition of emergencies will quickly become elastic. Franklin County, Ohio declared a civil rights emergency because blacks are disproportionately affected by the virus. This was attributed to systemic racism but it could be as simple as relative amounts of vitamin D in the system. It is unknown at this point what emergency powers, if any, Franklin County will use.

Stereotyping of Opponents: As the divide increases each side spends more and more time denigrating and mocking the other. Governors are called Nazis. The pro-open side is mocked as privileged people who don't care if people die as long as they can get a haircut. A recent column in the Columbus Dispatch pointed to disreputable elements in the pro-open demonstrations including one person who once fire-bombed abortion clinics and said that everyone demonstrating was complicit in his actions. Late-night hosts have similarly denigrated any pro-open protestors in a classic example of punching down.

Moving the Goalposts: The original goal was to "flatten the curve". This assumed that a major percentage of the population will contract the virus and that we can minimize deaths by spreading that number out over a longer period. Since the top of the curve turned out to be much lower than predicted, there is no reason to continue such extreme measures. But the goalposts have moved. Now we are trying to minimize infections until there is more testing or until a vaccine is developed or other amorphous goals. Flattening the curve is no longer a goal. A Washington Post columnist seemed to think it's a revelation that we are trying to live with the virus instead of eradicating it. That was never a realistic goal.

False Choices: The argument against reopening quickly devolves into "You want grandmothers to die!" Governor Cuomo has expressed the opinion that saving lives is all that matters. This is a false choice for several reasons. We put convenience above lives lost all the time. Every time someone gets in a car or crosses the street or climbs a ladder the take a risk of accidental death. The difference is if the chance of death is low enough that we as a society can tolerate it. That's where the problem with the models comes in. The original models made the virus look like an unacceptable risk. Actual statistics makes the virus seem unfortunate but still within the risk level that we are comfortable with.

There are deaths that can be attributed to the lock-down. Suicides are up. People are dying at home from things like heart attacks because they have been told to stay away from the hospitals. Cancer treatments and transplant surgeries have been delayed. There is also the measure of "quality years of life". The lock-down is reducing the quality of life in nursing homes (and years of life by forbidding outside contact. It is also robbing children of their childhood. Normally we devote a bit over a decade to schooling our young. Schools have been closed for months and there is a debate about opening them again this year. That means that we either give up on a year's worth of education for a generation of kids or that we take an extra year before we declare them adults.

Finally, there is evidence that the extreme shutdowns do not affect the fatality rate appreciably. Countries such as Sweden did not lock-down to the same extent as other countries but did not see a statistical difference in cases.

New Superstition: Social distancing and wearing a mask are the new talismans to protect people from the virus. The six-feet rule is based on studies that indicate that you will be infected if you spend at least ten minutes talking with someone who is less than 2 meters away in still air. This is a generic estimate about viruses, not once specific to the coronavirus. Other studies show that there ae few if any infections from casual exposure outside. That's what science says. Also, it's been known for decades that having medical staff wear a mask while conducting a procedure reduces the chances of the patient catching anything from the staff. That's what science says.

People have built on those factoids to believe that you are in danger of contracting the virus any time you are less than 6 feet from them and one of you is not wearing a mask. Stores have one-way aisles so you don't pass someone while shopping. People have been ticketed for walking on the wrong side of the street and sidewalks have been made one-way. Some parks in Ohio were closed because the trails are too narrow to allow "social distancing" when passing someone going the other way. There is no science behind this. It's superstition built on a tiny nugget of actual truth and ignoring any science that contradicts it.

Sunlight, fresh air, high humidity and salt water are all harmful to the virus, causing it to break down faster than normal. Sunlight in particular will disinfect surfaces within 1-4 minutes depending on the brightness. So, logically, beaches should be the safest place to go for exercise. But people went crazy when Florida reopened its beaches. This was fed by news services using telephoto lenses to make it appear that people were packed close together instead of spread out. The predictions of a spike in cases after the Jacksonville Beach reopened never happened.

A word about reality. I described the positions of both sides. The actual responses to the virus are more moderate than what either side is proposing. Things are reopening. It's happening slower than the open crowd wants and much, much faster than the stay-closed side wants but it is happening. This is increasing the volume instead of reducing it since neither side is happy and both sides are trying to affect policiy.

We are also in the position where a significant portion of the country is hoping for a second wave of deaths. In fact they need it because otherwise the extreme policies they advocated will have been unnecessary.