Bad News or Good News?

Dylan Loewe at the Huffington Post takes a look at a recent poll which shows McCain within a statistical dead heat with Obama. He sees this as good news for Democrats. To his way of thinking, McCain can only go down. His reasoning is that Hillary is attacking Obama while McCain has nearly dropped out of the news and that the voters have not yet begun to associate McCain with Bush's policies and war (meaning that the Democrats haven't started tarring him yet).

While this is true it is not the entire picture. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination, he is still fairly untested. The primary race has been between two progressives playing to the party's left wing. Neither is questioning the other's policies except to say that they are not progressive enough. The assumption is that the country has moved to the left but this assumption has not been tested. The Democrats won the 2006 election by running moderate candidates and capitalizing on resentment against the war, Republican ethical misconduct, and a general wearying of Bush. No one really knows if the country will back a candidate who wants to make it illegal to be uninsured. Obama will have to move to the center to be elected but it is unknown if he can do this and maintain his credibility.

More important, freshness is important in polls taken this early. McCain has been around for decades. This is his second run at the presidency. His name has been in the news as a Senator for years. In contrast, Obama is still shiny and fresh. He may be fleshing out his platitudes but most voters haven't heard the specifics. All they know is that he is the candidate of hope and change.

It is fairly common for a fresh candidate to do well in the Spring polls only to crash and burn by November. Voters are attracted to a candidate who seems to represent everything they want. This will change as the campaign wears on. Obama will have to define his platform and Republicans will challenge him on it. He will have to make specific proposals for Iraq and stick with them. If he proposes a quick pull-out then McCain will accuse him of cowardice. Voters will become learn all about Obama's college years when he would only associate with Marxists and radical feminists and Reverend Wright's quotes will be played constantly.

Once Hillary is out of the race Obama will be able to heal some of the damage but it remains to be seen how well he can do this. How much of her support is actually Anyone But Obama?

If McCain is lucky (and he's had quite a bit of luck already) then he will benefit from his age the same way that Reagan did. When Carter tried running a negative campaign against Reagan it hurt Carter. It came across as kicking someone's grandfather. McCain's age and service for the country may protect him from some of the more outrageous attacks.

So, my prediction is that McCain's numbers may sink over the next few months but that he will surge by or before the Republican convention. Obama will surge during the convention when he gives a blockbuster of a speach but his numbers will sink constantly starting as soon as the convention ends.