State of the Primary

Santorum won Mississippi and Alabama. So who came out ahead and behind?

Surprisingly, Romney came out ahead although you would never know it from the coverage. He won Hawaii and American Samoa. Even in the two states he lost, he still got some delegates. The result is that he picked up 42 delegates while Santorum only won 38.

Gingrinch was the big looser. As the only southerner in the race, he had hoped to win big in Mississippi and Alabama. Instead he barely beat Romney for 2nd in those states.

While the press continues to talk about Romney's weakness, it is becoming obvious that he will win the primaries. He has the best campaign staff, by far. Santorum is having problems even filing full slates. He came up short in Ohio and Illinois. He didn't even make it onto the ballot in Virginia.

Santorum and Gingrich cannot match Romney's campaign. The experience of having run in 2008 also helps him. This is the first national campaign for Santorum and Gingrich. Ron Paul has experience but lacks wide appeal.

This also gives Santorum the best chance against President Obama of the four contenders. Obama will have a first-rate campaign staff and can only be beaten by a similar campaign.

That does not mean that Romney will win. Originally he was running on his record as a governor and businessman. Thanks to Newt's attacks on Bain Capitol and the Occupy movement's attacks on rich people in general, Romney seems almost afraid to mention that he got rich by fixing a lot of broken companies. It's considered a major gaff for him to mention that his wife drives a couple of Cadillacs (he's a self-made multimillionaire, what's she supposed to drive?). Without a compelling personal story, Romney doesn't have anything left except going negative against his opponents.

Obama offers plenty of negatives but Romney will need more to convince people to vote for him.