The Blue Wave?

The president's party nearly always loses seats in Congress on mid-term elections so the Democrats can count on picking up some seats this year. In addition, they've won a number of special elections. In addition, Democrats are counting on President Trump dragging down the Republican party and turning a the election into a wave one where the Democrats take both houses with a commanding majority.

I've written about this before but it's time for an update.

First, the idea that Trump will drag down the Republican Party isn't new. Two years ago Trump was the Democrats preferred candidate because they expected him to drag down his party then. Granted the Republicans saw some small losses but there was no wave. Trump is unlikely to deliver Congress a wave election this time, either.

 Early polling looked promising. Trump was at a historic low and generic Democrats were way ahead of generic Republicans. That lead has collapsed. Trump is doing much better (or was before a pair of post-shooting polls came out). Worse, the generic Democrat is barely ahead of the generic Republican. Democrats usually poll better than they do in elections so that might put generic Republicans in the lead.

I've pointed out before that the Senate is going to be very difficult for the Democrats. They are defending a lot of seats, ten of them in states that Trump carried and they last ran with Obama at the top of the ticket so they will be running without his coattails to help them.

The biggest problem that the Democrats have is one of their own making: they hate Trump and everything he stands for and can't understand anyone thinking otherwise. They are still in their bubble so they have no idea of the national mood. They have convinced themselves that there is no need to appeal to moderate voters. They are sure that the key to victory is to move even further left.

The Democrats opposed the tax cuts, lying about who would be affected. As people found that they are benefiting from the tax cuts, they have become more popular. That will hurt Democrats who plan on running against the tax cuts.

The Democrats were also running to defend the "Dreamers". This is risky. They forced a government shutdown then caved on it after only one weekday. Most likely they realized that this was not a major issue for voters. President Obama's DACA program is being fought over in the courts with there being some question about the current president being able to rescind his predecessor's executive order. This will probably end up being heard by the Supreme Court and that drains the issue of all urgency.

The Russian probe has failed to produce anything and will probably continue to disappoint.

After the Valentines Day shootings, Democrats are hoping to ride a wave of outrage over "common sense gun control". They let loose the first volley, tweeting that "blood is on the Republicans' hands" as soon as the massacre happened. This may or may not help them. The election is a long ways away and it's hard to keep up the level of outrage needed to motivate voters that long. This is even more true of the #MeToo movement.

The #MeToo movement has other problems. It assumes that most women have been harassed and is trying to harness their outrage but, outside of the bubble, this may not be a big issue. That's a problem with the bubble, it makes it hard to know what resonates with people outside of it.

The gun control issue may end up hurting them in the long-run. There are lots of single-issue gun rights voters and they are most common in the red states that the Democrats can't afford to lose. They also have long memories.

The last time the Democrats took Congress they made a point of recruiting moderate candidates, the Blue Dog Democrats. That's not happening this time. The party has adopted a rigid set of litmus tests and no one is immune from them. To most of the country, Dianne Feinstein is far-left but the party refused to endorse her because she's not far enough left. The democrats run a real risk of moving so far to the left that they lose seats instead of gaining them.

They have also become anti-religion and anti-free speech along with anti-gun. Evangelicals and Catholics voted for Trump out of self-preservation. The Democrats are making no moves whatsoever to reach out to these voters.

A booming economy will hurt the Democrats in general although it does allow them to use wedge issues that seem irrelevant during economic troubles. Korea is the only real foreign issue right now. As long as it continues to simmer it will not effect the election but actual hostilities might be an issue.

The Democrats' biggest problem is themselves. They are assuming that Trump will do all of the hard work for them and that all they have to do is sit back and be elected, no matter the candidate. They still have a good chance at some gains but they are taking them for granted.