The Wall and the Shutdown

Right now the federal government is "shut down" with no end in sight over President Trump's demand for a border wall. Trump's position is easy to understand. The wall was his biggest campaign promise and trump has probably learned from George H. W. Bush's "read my lips" promise which was a big factor in his single-term as president. As it is, Trump has backed off a lot from his original promise of a wall going from ocean to ocean. The current one will be much smaller but will still target areas with the most border crossings.

Trump's desire for a border wall is reasonable. It may not stop border crossings but it will slow them a lot. $5 billion sounds like a lot of money but the wall will pay for itself in reduced border enforcement costs (like the $1.3 billion the Democrats proposed) and reduced demand for federal aid for illegal immigrants. It will also help wages since the flood of unskilled workers depresses wages in general.

So why are Democrats so opposed to the wall? I can think of a few reasons, none of them complimentary to the Democrats.

The first is simple opposition to Trump. Many people reflexively take the opposing side from anything that Trump proposes, even if it means reversing themselves. So they are willing to see the government shut down rather than see Trump fulfill a campaign promise.

Opposition also comes from people who believe in open borders. They want to welcome anyone who wants to come to the US. While laudable, they will eventually run into the adage that you can have open borders or a welfare state but not both.

The Democratic Congressional leadership has to answer to both of these groups but I think there's more to their opposition than just this. After all, their counter-proposal is for money for border enforcement. This should be treated as a trap. Border enforcement without a wall means more children separated from their parents and more children dying in custody. That stokes opposition to Trump and helps motivate people to vote Democrat.

In the long-term, though, the Democratic party is counting on a continuing moderate influx of Hispanics. They are counting on this group to give them a permanent majority through demographics. The Democratic leadership may be willing to moderate the influx through heightened enforcement but they want to be able to revert. That's why they can't allow a wall. They are expecting that two years from now President Beto will agree to slashing enforcement funds again. But you can't defund a wall. It keeps on stopping immigrants, even if the current president welcomes them.