Why Trump Will Win in 2020

I've predicted Donald Trump's reelection victory before but not that the election is soaping up I'm even more sure of it. Here's why.

First, President Trump has history on his side. Incumbents seldom lose. Since World War Two, an incumbent has only lost twice (I'm not count Gerald Ford's 1976 loss since he wasn't even on the ballot in 1972). Also, polarizing presidents have done better when running for reelection than non-polarizing ones. Nixon, Reagan and George W. Bush were all hated by the Democrats with a passion that rivals their hatred for Trump and all won handily. Nixon and Reagan each won 49 states. Nixon and Bush also had close elections on their initial run and increased their margin of victory in their reelection. The two presidents who lost reelection, Carter and G. W. H. Bush, didn't inspire strong feelings from either side. I could also make a case that Reagan's influence distorted both elections. He beat Carter and Bush won as Reagan's 3rd term but lost when he was running as his own man for reelection.

Second there's the candidates. None of them has any name recognition or presence. Joe Biden leads the pack, mainly because people know who he is. But he'll never get the nomination. He's too old and moderate. Bernie lost his charm half-way through the 2016 primary and is now nothing more than an aging scold. Warren isn't much better. She's at her best when a quote of hers goes viral. When she opens her mouth she sounds like the law professor that she was. And, unlike Obama, she doesn't manage to give the impression of deep insight. Plus she's already crippled herself with her attempts at damage-control over her claims to be an Indian. Others like Harris and Booker have no presence. Contrast all of these with Trump's State of the Union Address. Trump inspires, the rest scold.

Finally, there are the issues. Currently it looks like any candidate who wants to win the primary will need to be a socialist and will have to support a laundry list of issues. These include:

Medicare for all. For the last decade 60%-0% of voters say they are happy with their insurance. Obama's "if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance" lie of the year will be a millstone around their necks. Plus there's all the people who will be thrown out of work if we outlaw private insurance as Kamala Harris proposed. 2.5 million people work in the insurance industry. That means at least a million will lose their jobs. Plus the stock market will crater as insurance companies are put out of business which will destroy retirement funds. All of this alone is enough to sink a candidate.

Open borders. The more Trump cracks down on illegal immigrants, the more the Democrats want open borders. Eliminating ICE has become a battle cry. Arguably, Trump's call for a wall and his promise to crack down on illegal immigration is what won him blue-collar swing states where pressure from illegal immigrants depressed wages. Running on open borders will only appeal to people who were already going to vote against Trump.

Guns. For years common wisdom held that Al Gore lost in 2000 because he was anti-gun so Democrats stayed neutral on them. No more. These days Democrats are in a bidding war to see who's the most anti-gun. That will run up votes in New York and California, states that Trump will never win anyway, but there are a lot of single-issue voters in swing states that Democrats need and the are scaring those voters away.

Abortion. This is a case where the Democrats have taken a winning issue and turned it into a losing one through overreach. The last couple of weeks Democrats have pushed to expand abortions well past the point of viability. The Governor of Virginia is in favor of allowing abortion when a woman is in labor, or even after the baby is born. This will mobilize the Right-to-Life voters and convince a lot of people who are generally in favor of abortion that the Democrats have gone too far.

The Green New Deal. This is being pushed by AOC as a way of saving the Earth. It is also such an authoritarian proposal that it would mean the end of democracy as we know it in the US. It calls for replacing all carbon-based power with renewables, outlawing gas-powered cars (no grandfathering, either) and limiting private ownership of vehicles in general. And that's just the start. It also calls for outright socialism and wealth redistribution. Calling this radical is an understatement and outside think tanks have pointed out that such a huge societal upheaval is not compatible with a representational democracy.

So summarize, Democrats are fighting historic trends with lack-luster candidates and a slate of unpopular issues. Barring a 2008-style financial melt-down, they don't have a chance.