The Race So Far

Bernie Saunders had to be taken to the hospital and given two stents. His campaign was already in trouble. There were reports of shakeups. Elizabeth Warren was endorsed by the Working Family's Party of New York. That's important because they are to the extreme left and normally would be more comfortable with an avowed socialist. Saunders has been dropping in the polls, ranking well behind Warren and Biden. Given his failing campaign and worries about his health I think we can cross him off of the likely winners list. Not that I really expected him to get the nomination. A grouchy 78-year-old socialist doesn't have wide appeal, even among today's Democrats. Four years ago he benefited from being the 2nd choice for Warren supporters and the only choice for the Not-Hillary vote. With those gone he was coasting on name recognition.

Joe Biden is also fading. There are questions about his memory and his honesty. The Ukraine story may sink him even if nothing comes of it. And he's also in his late 70s. He spends most of his time running on the Obama/Biden administration but that's a hard sell. It would be very unusual for a former vice president to be refused the nomination if he wants it but Joe may manage to pull that off.

That leaves Elizabeth Warren among the front-runners. She's The youngest of the front-runners (including Trump) and projects a lot more energy and earnestness than Saunders or Biden. She's currently the front-runner in some polls. I'd give her better-than-even odds of getting the nomination. I'd say it was a sure thing except for the tradition of giving the nomination to former vice presidents.

How will the election come out?

Biden insists that he can beat Trump "like a drum". He's fooling himself. If he gets the nomination he'll lose to Trump. He'll look old, tired and confused compared to Trump.

But Warren's my top pick. How will she do?

Trump has a lot of advantages. He's the incumbent. That's always a good thing in a healthy economy. And people know him now. Four years ago Democrats were calling him mentally unstable and likely to start a war. Instead he's the first president in decades who hasn't involved us in new wars, at least not so far. And he can claim to be a peacemaker based on his negotiations with North Korean. Republicans, including me, were worried that Trump would turn out to be a New York Liberal in disguise. He hasn't. His administration has been mainstream Republican and to the right of both Bushes. Trump won in 2016 even though his campaign was in constant turnover and he was outspent two-to-one. This time he will have the bigger campaign chest and experienced campaigners won't be afraid that working for him will ruin their careers. The impeachment proceedings are also likely to help Trump. Unless the Democrats can make a much stronger case than they have, it just looks like an attempted coup and that's enough to motevate lukewarm voters to vote. That happened in 2018 when the circus surrounding Kavanaugh's confirmation is credited with motivating enough Republicans to keep the Senate.

Warren has some significant handicaps. She wants to run without corporate money. That only helps Trump but it's doubtful that corporations and big-money donors will support her regardless. She is proposing government takeover of health care and education. She wants to raise taxes and to tax wealth itself. She has proposed a partial takeover of large businesses with the government mandating the membership of corporate boards. Any of those will cause major economic disruption. All of them put together are likely to crash the economy harder than the Great Depression. The only way a politician can push through this sort of wrenching change is during a major economic downturn when people think that they have nothing to lose. Trying to pass this during an economic boom is nearly impossible. She's certain to turn Wall Street against her which is major since they've been supporting Democrats over Republicans for the last several elections cycles. I doubt that Warren will go down in a defeat comparable to McGovern or Mondale. She's certain to win California and New York. But she's also certain to lose a lot of states that haven't voted Republican since Reagan.

One other handicap that Warren will have. If she's on the ballot then this will be the 4th election in a row with a woman or black running. The novelty of voting for the first woman candidate is gone.

So, my final prediction - Trump vs Warren with Trump winning.