The Impeachment Game-Changer (but not the one you think)

Earlier this week the New York Times reported that the hold on funds for Ukraine began much earlier than previously reported and was opposed by high-ranking officials including the Secretary of State and the Chief of Staff. Democrats immediately pounced (yes, they can pounce, too) and announced that this was a "game changer" and proved the need for additional witnesses to testify before the Senate. It is a game-changer but not the way they think.

First, this proves that they rushed the impeachment. If the New York Times can uncover this information then how did the House miss it? After all, the House has the power of subpoena. What else have they missed in their rush to impeach?

But what is more important is what this does to their case. The original whistle-blower report claimed that President Trump demanded that Ukraine open an investigation into the Bidens and withheld an aid package that was meant to pay for armaments in order to force compliance. The main proof was that Trump did suggest that the investigation be reopened and there was a hold placed on the aid.

Here's how their new timeline looks:

President Trump is obsessed with Joe Biden. In April the President learned about the aid package for Ukraine and saw an opening to embarrass Biden so he ordered a hold put on the aid. Then he waited the rest of April. And May. And June. Finally, 84 days later he had his phone call with the Ukraine. But he didn't mention the Bidens until half-way through the call and he never mentioned the hold. In fact, according to witnesses sworn testimony and statements from Ukraine, no one told them about it. The hold was released in mid-September with no investigation started.

The fact that Ukraine was never told about the hold was always a problem for the impeachment but now we have a second problem - the 84 day gap between Trump's order to hold the aid package and his suggestion that Ukraine look into the Bidens. It's really hard to reconcile the claim that Trump was obsessed with Biden with the leisurely pace. In fact, give the nearly three-month gap between the two actions and the low priority that Trump gave the Bidens in the phone call, it's not very likely the two events were connected at all.