Sunday, October 31, 2004

When viewed in its entirety, Osama's latest tape is an endorsement for Bush.

Officials said that in the 18-minute long tape — of which only six minutes were aired on the al-Jazeera Arab television network in the Middle East on Friday — bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.

On the tape, bin Laden also says his terror organization has been hurt by the U.S. military's unrelenting manhunt for him and his cohorts on the Afghan-Pakistani border.

A portion of the left-out footage includes a tirade aimed at President Bush and his father, former President George H.W. Bush, claiming the war in Iraq is purely over oil.

The highlight of last night's SNL's was the opening segment featuring Osama. On it he said, "I thought that I wouldn't get to vote but two Kerry operatives tracked me down. Now it seems that I am registered as a resident of Cincinnati."

The polls show an election too close to call. The one thing that makes me optimistic is the Daily Kos's take on it. They have been pulling out polls from 2000 showing Bush with a bigger lead over Gore than he has over Kerry now.

Things that they are not taking into account -

1) There probably will not be an October Surprise to match last election's November Surprise of Bush's past drunk driving arrest (but not conviction). After the explosives story got out early and sank, there probably isn't anything left.

2) In 2000, the Democrats' Get Out The Vote drive was unprecedented. This time the Republicans will match it with their own GOTV drive. So far I have gotten one call and one person at the door asking me to vote for Bush compared with a call for Kerry (note to Kerry - Kristen Dunst is not likely to change my mind). Of course, the Kerry people might be scared away by my make-shift Bush sign.

Anyway, the Kos is worried. Bush is on the upswing and they know it.

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