Tuesday, May 31, 2005

The French Vote

France voted against ratification of the European Union treaty on Sunday. There are several factors involved. One was a vote against open markets, known in France as "ultra-liberalism" or "Ango-Saxonism". Another factor was a general vote against French President Jacques Chirac. Even taking this into account, the vote represents an interesting trend.

A bit over two years ago the countries pushing hardest for the invasion of Iraq were the US, Great Britain, and Australia. The two countries supporting Saddam Hussein were France and Germany. All of these have had some sort of election in the past two years. Of these, the leaders of the pro-war countries all held onto their positions. In the meantime, Germany's Socialist Party lost its last provence and is expected to lose the next national election. And, of course, France voted against Chirac.

The trend is not absolute. Spain changed from a pro-war to an anti-war government. Still, Bush and Blair are in a stronger position than a year ago.

Also, the idea of a united Europe lead by France and Germany providing a political and economic counter-weight to US power has been postponed or cancelled.

This may be a good thing for Europe. France was trying to export their socialist-style government. While a 30 hour work-week and six weeks vacation may sound good, 10% unemployment and an economy with a persistent 2% growth rate provide a reality check. France will eventually have to embrace "ultra-liberalism" or turn into a third world country. The less influence it has on the rest of Europe in the meantime, the better.

In the meantime, Chirac's response to this trend was to appoint the proponent of anti_Americanism, de Villepon, as President.

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