Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Back to the 19th Century

To hear most activists, all we need to do to stop global warming is buy hybrid cars instead of SUVs. Here is a more realistic account of what life will be like by 2020 in England if proposed programs are implemented.
IF you enjoy long hot baths while sipping chilled white wine, you may be in for a disappointment.

[...] Fridge-freezers may be banished and replaced with cold room pantries, and energy consumption could be rationed, as food was in the post-war years.
Innovations such as patio heaters, plasma televisions and electric toothbrushes would become labeled as antisocial in the energy-saving age, as would owning more than one car. According to the forecast, domestic central heating may also have to be heavily regulated
All of this will happen unless Britians immediately cut back energy use 20%.

Keep in mind that the standard of living in England lagged significantly behind the US through much of the 20th century. This article refers to central heating as being post-war but my first house had central heat and it was built in 1910. Neither that house nor my current one (1920) had anything like a "cold room pantry". Going back to room-heaters and cold-rooms would mean a jump of more than a century for most people.

The problem with the debate on global warming is that warming is presented in the most simplistic and alarmist terms (sometimes in cute flash animations). Solutions are presented as either cheap or money-creating. Critics are dismissed as oil company stooges.

The facts are: 1) Moderate warming has been occurring since the mid-19th century. 2) There is a great deal of evidence that the world was in a cold-spell from the 14th through the mid-19th centuries so some warming is expected. 3) Some component of the detected warming may have been human caused but no one has come up with a viable model to distinguish between natural and human-induced warming. 4) Warming will have to increase a great deal before any of the horror stories can happen. 5) There are significant benefits to a warmer world such as a longer growing season. These are never discussed or even acknowledged. 6) The costs of trying to reduce carbon emissions are enormous - far greater than world leaders let on. 7) The Kyoto protocols were never meant to stop global warming, they were only introduced as a first step with the real cuts coming later. Even with its modest cuts, Kyoto has been a colossal failure with most signatories being out of compliance.

The problem is that Green activists seized on warming as being a bad thing and use it to further their agenda. Currently, any time anything happens in the world, it is ascribed to global warming somehow. If we don't cut through all of the hysteria soon we may find ourselves living in conditions our grandparents were glad to leave behind.

No comments: