President Bush revealed his new anti-global warming plan today. It involves talks between the top emitters, sharing technology, and allowing nations to set their own strategies. It is unlikely to go anywhere for a few reasons. A big one is that Bush is a lame duck and none of the Democratic challengers are going to support Bush's plan. A second reason is that most of the world prefers the Kyoto Protocols.
The world has good reason to prefer Kyoto. China and India get a pass on doing anything. That leaves the US to make the cuts. If we had signed it, we would be expected to make 60% of the cuts. We do not emit anything near 60% of the world's CO2 but we would have to shoulder the lion's share of the cuts.
That's why Congress voted unanimously (with a few abstentions) on a resolution warning President Clinton (this was long before Bush) not to even bother submitting the treaty.
Kyoto was flawed from the start. It was meant as a down payment on CO2 cuts with stricter cuts to follow. It is implemented through a cap and trade scheme which totally failed. Countries were asked how much CO2 their industry emitted and were issued credits for that much minus the cuts. In order to save themselves pain, most countries in Europe exaggerated how many credits they would need. As a result, no one needs any credits and the credit market collapsed.
Even if everything had gone as planned, the amount to be cut is meaningless. This is especially true since China and India are allowed to expand their emissions under the treaty.
Bush's proposal stands a good chance of actually making cuts in emissions. Kyoto will not. Guess which one will win?
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