Monday, September 24, 2007

Flooding Jamestown?

According to an article released by the AP, Jamestown Island and other historic sites will be covered with water sometime in the next 50-100 years due to rising ocean levels caused by thermal expansion. The article goes on to say that this will happen, no matter what we do.

Where to start?

The last IPCC report did say that the sea levels will rise around one meter due to thermal expansion. They later amended this statement. The figures said 1 millimeter/year and someone transcribed this as 1 meter/century. There are 1,000 millimeters in a meter but only 100 years in a century. The corrected figure should have been 0.1 meters (less than four inches) by the end of the century. Like the CDC's press release about obesity killing 300,000 per year that was later retracted, the 1 meter/century figure is the only one reporters remember.

But, for arguments sake, let's say that the ocean did rise by a meter. What would be the effect on the historic sites at Jamestown Island? Nothing. The site would still be well above the water level. I've been there several times, most recently this year. The water is a long way down. What's more, the water is a river meaning that it is at least slightly above ocean level. This part of the river is salty and slightly affected by the tide so it is close to sea level but not there.

There are parts of the island that would be underwater if the river rose a meter. These parts are on the far end and few tourists would notice the difference.

The study quoted claims to have used US Geological Survey maps. This makes me wonder - is the US Geological Survey that far off? Did the scientists in Arizona misread the data? Did they exaggerate the sea level rise in order to gain more alarming results? Is there a problem with the compute model they used? Something is wrong.

Ironically, the study lists New Orleans as a city that would be partly submerged if global warming continues. Someone forgot to tell them that it is already below sea level.

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