Inevitable Obama?

Assumptions change with lightening rapidity in this atypical election year. A couple of weeks ago Hillary was the front-runner who would finally sink Obama on Super-Tuesday. Super-Tuesday came and went with the two candidates essentially tied. Then a new count showed Obama slightly ahead. Then came a string of primaries in states that Hillary was polling poorly in.

Just last week the race was certain to go to the convention with each candidate holding enough pledges from superdelegates to keep the other from securing the nomination. More recently the pundits started assuming that the superdelegates will fall in line behind whoever has the most regular candidates. With that pronouncement, Obama seems like the eventual winner.

On the other side, I keep reading that McCain only came in first because Romney and Huckabee split the conservative vote.

There are problems with both opinions.

First, while Obama has a dedicated following, it has not been enough to secure the nomination. He may well win but the fact that the race is so drawn out shows that he only appeals to a portion of the Democratic party. Further, now that he has become dominate the progressive wing is taking a new look at his record and they are not sure they like what they see. True, he has an impeccable progressive voting record which appeals to him but it also puts him a lot further to the left than he presents himself. This will probably hurt him with swing voters. Also, he has been strongest in closed caucuses in red states. These are states that it will be very difficult for him to win in November. Hillary has been winning or coming close in the blue and purple states. Obama needs to keep all of the big states that Kerry won and add a new one like Ohio where Hillary is running way ahead.

Then there is McCain. Contrary to popular opinion, he is not ahead because his opponents split the social conservatives. He is ahead because, after Super-Tuesday, he had twice as many delegates as everyone else put together. Limbaugh and Dobson might convince some conservative voters to stay home but they are making the case to moderate swing voters that McCain is one of them.

Combine that with Obama's liberal record and you have some real problems for the Democrats in a year that they assumed they could not lose.

Of course, everything could change again in the next two weeks. Hillary could take Ohio and Texas, twist a few arms, and some out on top. Something could happen in Iraq to sour the surge which would hurt McCain. November is still a long ways away.