Democrats' Dilemma

A year ago, in the wake of the inauguration of Barack Obama, Democrats told themselves that they were the wave of the future - that the Republicans were doomed to be an increasingly regional party representing a single, shrinking ethnic group (white men). When the Tea Party protests started, they told themselves that this was nothing but racist whites protesting a black president. The first couple of special elections went the Democrats' way, bolstering their opinions. When polls showed that their popularity in general and their agenda in specific were unpopular they ignored it.

In the November elections the Democrats lost two governorships but gained a house seat in an unusual special election. Democrats pointed out that those states usually elected a governor from the party not in the White House and insisted that the special election was more important.

With last week's special election for Ted Kennedy's seat, Democrats finally have to face reality. They and their policies are deeply unpopular. The question is if they can rebuild the party's image in nine months?

There are significant obstacles. In 2006 they ran promising to end the war, balance the budget, and, possibly, impeach Bush. None of that happened. Bush was too powerful, they said. They had to have their own man in the White House in order to effect change.

In 2008 they ran on a platform of ending the war, balancing the budget, universal health care, and general change. They won the White House and the biggest majorities in both houses seen in generations. This time they can no longer run on promises. They have to run on results and things don't look good for them.

Last week, President Obama said that the same voter discontent that swept him into office also swept Brown into the Senate. On the face of it, this is a strange remark but I think that he has a point. Fiscal conservatives were unhappy during most of Bush's administration. He took a surplus and turned it into a deficit. Granted, he had an economic downturn and a couple of wars that were not included in the projections he inherited from Clinton, but spending under Bush went way up. This was a source of irritation rather than a cause until 2008 but the Democrats included it in their campaigns, anyway. It worked. Many Libertarians voted for Obama, figuring that he would spend less than McCain.

Things changed in the Fall of 2008. Between bailouts and the TARP, voters were suddenly shocked by the sums being thrown around. Obama continued and expanded this. The Democrats held off passing the 2009 budget until Obama was in office because it was so bloated that Bush would never have signed it but Obama never batted an eye. Leading economic authorities including some on Obama's team had previously said that government stimulus spending had never worked because it was never spent in the right place at the right time. Obama and the Democrats ignored history and passed a huge stimulus.

Then their is the health care bill which is in limbo right now. Obama called it a significant deficit reduction tool but anyone who has been paying attention knows that it employs budgeting tricks and future, unnamed cuts. In reality, it will increase the deficit.

So, right now, the most motivated group of voters is the Tea Party. These are people who are outraged by the growth of government and debt. By themselves, this group would be more of an annoyance than a threat. That's where the Democrats' record hurts them. They made a lot of promises in the last few years and delivered on very few. Even if health care passes, it is so far from what the Democrats' base expected that most are calling it useless. Obama's other major initiative, green energy, seems doomed to the same fate. Plus the war in Iraq is winding down on Bush's terms and the war in Afghanistan has escalated. None of this is going to energize the Progressive left to turn out and vote.

Finally, there is the great mass of voters who are not committed to specific ideals. Their biggest priority is unemployment and has been all year. Obama ignored this. All these people have heard from Washington since July has been the push for health care reform (and it's been confusing and ugly). Even when the House passed a massive jobs bill, the news was overshadowed by the Senate health care debate and hardly anyone knows about it.

Obama is trying to recalibrate himself against bankers and big business and for the middle class. His record is going to hurt him here. His first year was typified by bailouts and deals.

To further complicate things, anything that Obama does to mollify the Tea Party will outrage the Progressives and vice versa. Tax credits for child care are all well and good, if they actually pass, but they will not bring the unemployment rate down.

Obama is talking about a commission to find ways to balance the budget but it will not meet until after the election. It may end up being more smoke and mirrors when Obama needs some popular successes.