Tuesday, July 03, 2012

The Obama Campaign Takes Shape

A month ago articles were predicting how the campaign would go. So far Obama's campaign is following the playbook. This breaks down two ways.

The first is a divide and conquer approach. The Obama campaign has identified the groups most likely to turn out and vote for the President. They are being heavily courted. The biggest group is Hispanics. Four years ago they voted for Obama in record numbers and the Obama campaign assumes that they will deliver states with large Hispanic populations like California. Other important groups are single women, college students and voters under 30.

The Obama Campaign's approach to these groups varies. The "Life of Julia" web site was aimed at unmarried women. His harping on student loan rate is aimed at college students (BTW, you would never know from the hysteria that we are only talking about $10/month on new loans). His executive order establishing the DREAM Act was his most blatant pander.

As the incumbent, Obama has many tools that allow him to pander to these groups. His executive order was only one of them. Still, that may not be enough. Both NBC and Huffington Post ran stories about the lack of enthusiasm this time among the under-30-year-olds. This has been a traditionally difficult group to motivate to vote. As a young, cool, black candidate in 2008, Obama brought them to the polls in record numbers. He is unlikely to repeat that. The other groups have cooled on him also and Romney is targeting them in the hope of increasing his support. Romney doesn't have to win any of these groups, he just has to do better than McCain.

The other part of Obama's campaign comes down to one word - lie. He is lying about Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts. He is lying about Bain Capitol. The fact-checkers are getting increasingly harsher on the Obama Campaign because they keep repeating charges that have been judged false.

But Obama does not stop there. He recently sent out a letter worrying that he will be the first incumbent president outspent by a challenger. This is another lie. He continues to insist that he is fiscally conservative.

Of course all of this is meant as a distraction. The last thing Obama wants to do is to run on his record. Under him the economy has languished, we continue to be involved in wars with no workable solution, and civil rights abuses have been strengthened instead of rolled back.

So Obama will continue to tear down Romney and to encourage turn-out by groups like to vote for him.

No comments: