Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Global Warming - the fine print

Earlier this month the headlines screamed "2012 Hottest Year in History". If you looked closely, the actual story was "2012 Hottest Year in History in the US". No one ever mentioned that last part. Instead we heard about how this should satisfy the skeptics (or "deniers") once and for all. Immediate action is needed! We have to start taxing carbon right now!!

But what about that fine print? When the US has a cold year the experts tell us that the only thing that matters is global temperature.

So what was the global temperature last year? It turns out that 2012 was the 10th hottest on record. While that still sounds hot, you have to remember that we seem to have reached a plateau 14 years ago. the world isn't getting any cooler but it isn't getting any warmer, either. That goes against all predictions of global warming. As CO2 increases, the temperature is supposed to go up. Period. A few years without a rise can be dismissed as an anomaly but 14 years is becoming significant. If the models do not predict such a long pause then there is something fundamentally wrong with the models.

That is why you hear about the US temperature but not the world temperature. The world did not warm last year, the cold, Canadian air was deflected by warm Pacific air. We got someone else's warm temperatures and the cold that we normally get went elsewhere. This meant that it was warmer than usual in the US and colder elsewhere.

And that is why you have to look at global temperatures instead of local.

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