Monday, July 08, 2019

Trump, Kim and the Editorial Staff

I saw an editorial recently that was written after President Trump became the first American President to enter North Korea. Naturally, the editorial downplayed that historic event and said that he should leave the negotiations with North Korea to normal diplomatic channels. This is an excellent example of an editor who reflexively hates anything that Trump does without bothering to use any sort of historic perspective.

Regular diplomatic channels were used by the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. The result of that was that North Korea is now a nuclear power with intercontinental missiles capable of reaching Washington DC (although it's doubtful they can get anywhere near as far with a nuclear payload and their guidance systems are iffy). They also celebrated their chairman's birthdays by releasing videos of their missiles destroying American cities. Regular diplomatic channels were so ineffective that the Obama administration gave up and adopted a policy of "strategic patience" which was a euphemism for kicking the can down the road. So, after 24 years of letting diplomats handle the negotiations we were left with a country that is more dangerous than nuclear powers like Pakistan and India (neither of them has tested intercontinental missiles).

Our dealings with other countries made a deal with North Korea even less likely. The Bush administration toppled two governments. Afghanistan was understandable since they were sheltering the perpetrators of 9/11 but Iraq had given up its nuclear program and we overthrew it on suspicion that they had restarted it.

The Obama administration doubled down on this. First they helped overthrow Libya, a country that had voluntarily given up its nuclear program. Then they ratified Iran's program and sent them billions on condition that they simply slow their nuclear program down a bit. We even let them keep their missile program.

The clear message to the North Koreans was that the US is more likely to overthrow a country that gave up its nuclear program and to reward one that refuses to give it up.

Following the tradition of leaving advice for one's successor, Obama warned Trump that North Korea would be his first challenge.

So Trump took a completely different approach. He realized that North Korea will never give up its nuclear program without the consent of Kim Jong-un but if Kim agrees to disarm then it will happen. He also employed a carrot and stick approach. He used Viet Nam as an example of a country that went from being at war with the US to being a prosperous trading partner. At the same time he tightened sanctions. His message is that North Korea can be like South Korea or Viet Nam and become peaceful and prosperous but first they have to give up their nuclear program.

So far North Korea has refused to disarm but, and this is important, they also stopped testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. This may be the best that can be accomplished but it's still a major improvement over the state of affairs when Trump took office.

And that is why Trump is pursuing the proper course and the editorials are wrong.

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