A Campaign of Surprises

Every time it seems like things have been settled in the primary it switches around again. Before the first votes were cast, Hillary looked like a sure thing. Then she placed third in Iowa and Obama was a sure thing. Hillary won by an unexpected margin in New Hampshire and was back on track. Super Tuesday was supposed to be the vote that cemented her status as the candidate-elect. Super Tuesday came and went. At first it looked like Hillary was still ahead but by only a few votes. A day later some super delegates started committing and she was behind.

Then came a run of twelve losses and it looked like Hillary had overstayed her welcome. Obama was the sure thing. All he had to do was win Texas and Ohio.

The Texas and Ohio votes are over. Texas was close but Hillary won. Ohio was supposed to be close but Hillary ended up winning by a good margin.

Where are we now?

Obama has pointed out that he is still ahead by about as many delegates as before. That is true but his string of victories is broken. That is far more important. For a while it looked like the super delegates would vote for him based on his momentum. It appeared that the mood of the country had shifted for him and Hillary's earlier victories should be given less weight.

Ohio changed all of that. Obama did everything right in Ohio. He out-spent Hillary. He beat her in every form of advertising - TV, radio, newspaper, direct call, and web ads. He had the better campaign organization complete with a better get out the vote drive. He had her beat on hot topics such as support for the war and NAFTA.

So what happened?

The Ohio vote can only be described as a rejection of Obama. Not only did whites vote for Hillary, so did the party faithful.

The last few days have been tough on Obama although it was not obvious. SNL ran two opening sketches on how the press has fawned on Obama. People on the fence looked at Obama-mania and recoiled.

Obama made some mistakes himself. This is nothing new. He has been making foreign policy blunders all along but people started taking him seriously when it looked like he was a sure thing as the next president.

Take the example of Fareed Zakaria. A few months ago he was gushing over Obama's background growing up in a foreign country overshadowed by the US. Zakaria echoed his own experience growing up in India and expressed his hope that Obama would work for the general good instead of the good of the US. Earlier this week Zakaria criticized both candidates for their protectionism. He quoted an unnamed South American diplomat as saying that they might look back with nostalgia at the days of George Bush.

I suspect that this is a typical reaction. For some time Obama has been a mirror. People saw in him their own hopes. Now they are looking at the man himself and turning away.

All of this is good news for McCain. As a pro-war Republican and potentially the oldest man to be sworn in to that office, he looked like a long-shot. Now he has time to consolidate his position and build up his national campaign. Obama (and Hillary) will be too busy running to the left to appeal to the center.

On a different note - the Democrats must really hate Ohio right now. First we tipped the last two elections for Bush. Now we gave a Hillary a boost and kept the campaign going when Obama was hoping to wrap it up. The Democrats now have seven weeks of limbo before the next major primary and the continuing prospect of the primaries being settled at the convention.