Obama and McGovern

The Clinton campaign has suggested that Obama is the next McGovern, too liberal to be elected. Assuming that Hillary makes it through the Ohio and Texas primaries and takes her campaign to the convention floor, there will be some striking parallels.

Like Obama, McGovern ran as a candidate from a new generation challenging an unpopular president and an unpopular war. He didn't inspire his crowds to the point of swooning as Obama does but he did have very dedicated followers. Like Obama, McGovern's support was deep but not very wide.

Let me go into more detail about this last part. As I said, in both cases the candidate had a very loyal following. While passionate, it was not deep enough to guarantee the nomination. McGovern did not win enough delegates to get the nomination. He needed the 1972 version of the superdelegates. Similarly, Obama has racked up a lot of wins but may not get a clear majority of the committed delegates.

Like Obama, McGovern was the face of a new generation. He represented youth and energy. His opponent had strong ties to the previous president. Obama's opponent was married to the previous president, McGovern's was vice-president.

The 1972 convention began with a vote over credentials. There was a dispute over how California's delegation should be handled. If McGovern had lost this it would have been a sign that he did not have enough support to win the candidacy. In 2008 the convention will possibly begin with a motion to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. This will benefit Hillary unfairly. If it passes then things look bad for Obama.

After the convention, the wheels came off of McGovern's campaign. He was extremely liberal and he had run to the left in order to win the nomination. Once the main campaign started he backed off of several proposals he had made. This opened the way for the most effective anti-McGovern ad. Paid for by the "Democrats for Nixon" the ad featured a coin goig back and forth as an announcer repeated positions that McGovern had switched positions on.

Obama will have problems with promises he has made on the campaign trail. Canada has already expressed concern about his views on NAFTA. After implying that he is totally against NAFTA, aything that Obama does will seem like a flip. He has put himself out on a limb with other positions.

The thing that probably hurt McGovern the most was his vice-presidential choice. The man he chose, Eagleton, turned out to have problems. He had been given electro-shock therapy for stress. This was obviously someone who should not be a heartbeat away from becoming president.

It is unlikely that Obama will make a choice this bad. A lot more background research is done on potential running mates these days to keep this from happening again.

McGovern's campaign never caught fire. His support never grew beyonf his initial supporters. His promises to end the war sounded alternately like pandering, surrender, or desperation. It turned out that the war was not unpopular enough to elect McGovern. He went down to a historic defeat.

Obama might follow this path. His following seems creepy to many independent voters. Iraq was never as unpopular as Viet Nam and recent gains in Iraq will give McCain an edge over Obama's call for a quick pull-out.

It is possible that Obama will not follow McGovern's path. I a recent column, E. J. Dionne speculated that Obama is like Reagan. Maybe, but I doubt it. Reagan had been a political fixture for some time before running for president. He had been governor of California and ran in 1976. He was an experienced administrator and a known quantity. He was also pushing a new philosophy. Obama was unknown four years ago and does not have any major accomplishments to his name. He talks about change and being a new type of politician but his platform is boilerplate liberal. If he has a new idea he has yet to articulate it.

In his inaugural address, Reagan said the eight scariest words in the English language are, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." These eight words also sum up Obama's governing philosophy.