I'm going to go out on a limb (a real thick one) and project that Bush will win. I'm starting with the 261 eletoral votes that Bush has in today's electoral-vote.com. That gives him Ohio but Kerry gets Florida. Bush is going to win Florida. He is probably going to take Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota. Bush only needs one of these states to win.

I am assuming that every other state will go as it looked at the last poll. Most of them were "strong Bush". Even if Bush loses a "weak Bush" state like Nevada he still has his 270 electoral votes.

One thing that really pleases me - the youth vote didn't change. It was 17% in this election, the same as it was in 2000. That means that the whole draft lie flopped.

As I type this, P. Diddy is on NBC saying that there was a lot of youth turnout. He obviously was not watching NBC earlier when they showed the results of their exit polls.