I keep reading that we are losing or already lost Iraq. These statements always seem to come from people who don't like President Bush. Glenn Reynolds has been writing about this in his column at MSNBC. In the meantime, Vice-President Cheney said that the insurgency is in its last throws. Which side is right?
Things are not going well for the insurgency. The stresses between the two groups - Baathists and Islamists - are showing. al- Zarqawi spends more time attacking Iraqi civilians than attacking US troops. The has not gone unnoticed. An Egyptian minister proclaimed that, since al-Zarqawi's attacks hurt the Iraqis rather than help them, he must be an American agent. While it is annoying that Moslems assume that anyone hurting Moslems must be an American agent, it is still heartening to see that Zarqawi is losing the "Arab street". Who is going to volunteer to go to Iraq and blowhimself up for an American agent?
He is not getting along with the other insurgents, either. Relations are so bad that the insurgents are attacking each other.
The Islamists will find it very difficult to work in Iraq if the Iraqi people turn against them. The Baathists may make a deal with the Iraq transitional government. That would isolate the Islamic fundamentalists and probably drive them out.
There is still a lot that can go wrong but this seems to be the direction that Iraq is headed.
One thing that could still go wrong is announcing a timetable for withdrawing the troops. If the insurgents know exactly how long they have to hold on, they will. If they know that we will stay as long as they stay then they will give up.
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