Friday, August 31, 2007

Warming Spin

I'm sure I've said it before but one reason I'm skeptical about global warming is that I know the news stories about it are slanted. Take this one. In brief, biologists found that plants retain moisture better in an atmosphere that includes higher levels of CO2. I can think of three ways that this could be spun:

1) Catastrophic global warming less likely. I'm serious. The driving factor in the weather models that give the really alarming forecasts is not carbon dioxide, it is water vapor. The theory is that CO2 emissions will drive up the temperature enough to reach a tipping point where enough H2O is in the atmosphere that it will take over as the dominant greenhouse gas. This will induce a positive feedback loop where more heat causes more water vapor which traps more heat. The plant study shows that plants will hold water instead of releasing it into the air thus reducing a potential source of water vapor.

2) Plants will be more drought-resistant. No question about this. A plant that is retaining moisture does not need as much rainfall.

But this is how the study was spun:

3) Plants will make greenhouse effect flooding worse. The theory is that plants will pull less water from the ground which will make it easier for the soil to become saturated which is a contributing factor for floods. Even at that, I can see some potential flaws. This would only be a factor in minor flooding. In a major flood, the soil is going to get saturated, anyway. It would not be a factor in the really big downpours where rain falls faster than it can be absorbed. Then there is the question - if plants are holding more water then will rainfall and therefor flooding be reduced?

In the meantime, talks at expanding Kyoto are stuck on a proposal to reduce CO2 emissions by 25-40% from 1990 levels (that would be something like 30-50% cuts in today's emissions) by 2020. That's only 12 years and a few months away. To put this level of cut in perspective, you would have to cut off all residential power in order to meet the high end. Forget compact fluorescents,  we would have to do away with all lights, heat, refrigeration, etc. Or we could shut down all businesses. Then we would still have heat and refrigeration but nothing to eat or wear. I hope that these talks fail miserably.


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