Foreign Affairs Follies

Modern teachers are fond of "conflict resolution" when dealing with problems between students. This holds that one child is never totally at fault. All problems are the result of conflicts between the two students and proper mediation will allow both of them to change their behavior and avoid future conflict. The problem with this theory is that some kids are just mean and act like bullies because they can. Their victims did not do anything to antagonize them except appear to be bullies.

On several occasions, President Obama has made it clear that he views foreign relations as conflict resolution on a global scale. It's not that countries have conflicting ideologies or goals that puts them at odds with the US, it is just that we have insisted on treating them that way. The Obama foreign policy is centered around the idea that we can be friends with everyone. So far that isn't working out very well.

The biggest problem is that some nations have goals that are more important to them than friendship with the US. Iran and North Korea have made it clear that they want to be world powers with missiles and warheads capable of threatening their neighbors and possibly the US. North Korea in particular has been aggressively testing the Obama administration by testing nuclear weapons and firing missiles.

Iran is a particularly difficult case for Obama. During the campaign he promised more than once to have talks with them without preconditions. Once in office, he renewed that offer only to have Iran respond with a list of preconditions that Obama would have to perform before he could meet with them.

Events have a tendency to get in the way of foreign policy. In Iran, the Obama administration wanted friendly negotiations to stop their nuclear program. This was complicated by their sham of an election. This left the US without any attractive options. We can continue to try to deal with the current Iranian leaders, ignoring the election and the way that they suppressed peaceful protests. This approach has already been attacked by conservatives. The alternative is to support the protesters in the hope that they will overthrow the current government and that they will be more open to the United States. Neither of these is likely and any support for the protesters would totally alienate the current government.

Russia is another problem. Putin has made it clear that he misses the days when Russia was the equal of the US and has made several moves to strengthen Russia. While not exactly trying to restart the cold war, he envisions a return to Russian prominence. The Obama administration fails to understand this and sees worsening relations as the result of something that the Bush administration did. They keep talking about "resetting" relations. Hillary already pushed a symbolic RESET button with her Russian counterpart. Now Obama is making a personal visit and promising another reset in relations. While he will have some results in nuclear warhead reduction (already negotiated), he will not make much progress on tougher issues such as missile defense, Iran and Georgia. His goals are in conflict with Russia's. You can't reset from that.

Finally, there is South America and Hugo Chavez. Chavez and Obama met a few months ago and Chavez took that opportunity to embarrass Obama by giving him a copy of Chavez's writings as instruction for how to govern.

Chavez is fundamentally at odds with the US. He sees himself as a revolutionary and the successor to Fidel Castro. He has financed revolutionary movements in other countries and formed an anti-US trading alliance. His view of the world holds that the US and free markets are responsible for all evils. No amount of happy talk can alter that although he and Obama might be personally friendly.

Obama's desire to be liked by South America and Chavez is causing errors in judgment about Honduras. Ousted president Zelaya tried a coup of his own by illegally calling for a constitutional convention that would do away with term limits. He ordered the army to defy their Supreme Court and distribute ballots. Instead the army sent Zelaya packing.

This is a case where both sides were at fault and the resolution should involve a new election. Instead, Obama sided with Zelaya. This is a particularly bad move. Zelaya is an anti-American Chavez ally. He has little support in Honduras and none in its Congress or army. Restoring is unlikely to make him pro-American and supporting him hurts our image in Honduras.

For someone who was supposed to restore world-wide respect for America, Obama is off to a poor start.