The Many Problems of Mr. Obama

Sometimes it sucks to be president. Look at everything on President Obama's plate:

Health Care - the promise was that once it passed the public would accept and embrace it. Instead it is becoming even less popular. Obama is launching a new campaign to convince the country that we wanted this legislation. Congressional Democrats are avoiding town hall meetings for fear of a repeat of last year's meetings when opponents of health care outnumbered supporters. What should have been Obama's biggest triumph threatens to become a millstone.

The Gulf Oil Spill - Obama is still trying to find the right tone. Today he is talking about firing the head of BP and kicking the right asses. Tough talk only goes so far while the spill continues. This may hurt the Democrats in November. In the meantime, it is a constant distraction.

The Economy - For the last few months the Obama administration is taking credit for saving the economy. The real economic news is not good for them. The White House had originally predicted a sharp recovery, comparable to the recovery under Reagan. This is not happening. At its best, the Obama economy was holding unemployment stable rather than reducing it. The May figures show that even this has stopped. Except a big jump in the unemployed when the temporary census worker positions end. Hopes for a V-shaped recession have failed. Now the talk is of a double-dip recession where we drop back into a recession before recovering from the last one. This is the Democrats' worst nightmare. For the last two years they have insisted that the recession was caused by insufficient government control and spending. A double-dip recession would repudiate them and their advisers.

Afghanistan - Obama came to office insisting that this was the real war and that he would win it. A year after his version of a surge, things are not going particularly well. The US-supported government is viewed as corrupt. The Taliban is entrenched. Training of native soldiers and police is behind schedule and may never produce the desired results. The war has moved into Pakistan which is becoming increasingly touchy. About the only piece of luck that Obama has here is that the anti-war movement died down, at least for now.

Mid-East Peace - It's all bad news here.

Iran and North Korea - So much for smart diplomacy. Nothing Obama is willing to do has had any effect on Iran's nuclear ambitions. North Korea is worse, going so far as to torpedo a South Korea ship. What happens if either country starts a war after creating a nuclear stockpile?

Progressives - While Obama is the most radical left president in decades, he and the Democrats are still not keeping the Progressives happy. This group has the potential to do to the Democrats what the Tea Party is doing to the Republicans - replace safe, moderate candidates with fire-breathing radicals. Much of the country is already uncomfortable with how far left the country has drifted so the Democrats will have to choose between appealing to the centrists or their most active supporters.

Mid-term Elections - It all comes down to this. It is a given the the Republicans will pick up seats. Without George Bush to drag the Republicans down and without Obama at the top of the ticket to help the Democrats, seats in normally conservative districts will shift back to Republican hands. The economy and a general anti-incumbent feeling will also hurt the Democrats. Their only hope is to mobilize the huge number of first-time voters from 2008. This is a poor strategy since most of those people cared more about voting for the black man at the top of the ticket than about politics in general. The Republicans have a shot at regaining control of the House and making gains in the Senate. At the least, this election will take the edge off of Obama's most radical proposals.