Friday, August 19, 2011

Obama 2012

Normally the Presidential campaign begins in earnest after the Labor Day preceding the election. President Obama is starting a year early and has already outlined his early campaign.

First, he plans on introducing a jobs bill. This will be a package of proposals which will sound reasonable but probably would not help the economy, even if they were enacted. They will not be because they will be carefully salted with provisions that the Republicans will not pass. Tax increases on the "rich" will almost certainly be part of the package as will an "infrastructure bank". The merits of an infrastructure bank can be debated on their own but it will not help the general economy nor will it provide any immediate relief (there are no shovel-ready jobs).

Obama does not actually intend for this to pass. He wants it to fail so that he can beat up on Republicans for not passing it. Probably the worst thing that could happen to Obama would be having his bill pass since that will lead voters to expect a reduction in unemployment by election day.

The second part of Team Obama's plan is temporarily on hold. They had assumed that Romney would be the nominee and were already planning on painting him as the "weird" candidate. They would never mention his religion outright but it would always be there. They have been using he word for weeks already. Team Obama does not have a plan ready for Perry but rest assured that they will and it will be personal.

The third part is a reversal of Obama's illegal immigrant policy. During his first two and a half years, the Obama administration came down hard on illegal immigrants. Enforcement was much stricter than under Bush. Over one million were deported and the administration made it more difficult for illegals to get a job. Now the Obama is doing an about face on the issue. By executive order, deportations will now be prioritized. Criminals will go first. College students will go last and may never even be deported. Obama has essentially implemented the DREAM Act by executive order.

There may be a repeat of his "listening tour" but don't count on it. Making a campaign trip in a million-dollar bus at taxpayer expense did not give him any boost. Obama would love to recreate the 2008 campaign but he is already running into the problem that a president cannot take off weeks to campaign the way that a senator can.

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