Bradley Effect?

In my last post talked about why the pollsters got New Hampshire wrong. There have been several columns written about this subject since then. Most referred to the "Bradley Effect". Named after an LA mayoral candidate who polled much higher than he scored in the election, this is a variation of what I was talking about. Depending on who you ask, the Bradley Effect is either caused by a voter hiding his racism by lying to pollsters or trying to prevent being perceived as a racist by the pollster by lying. This is an important distinction, one that escapes many liberals.

If you vote against Obama because he is black then you are racist (or prejudiced, a more accurate word which has fallen out of usage). If you voted against Obama because you thought Hillary would do a better job then you are blameless. Regardless of the reason for your vote, many people only look at the result - a black man not getting the vote - and assume prejudice. As this column points out, the New Hampshire primary was the perfect place for the Bradley Effect to happen. Obama was clearly the candidate that Democrats were supposed to prefer so a significant number said what they thought the pollsters wanted to hear.

My earlier point is that this does not just happen when minorities are on the ballot. It is human nature to want people to think well of oneself, even when it only involves an autonomous poll-taker on the phone. Accordingly, some voters give the answers that they think will make them look better. This is more pronounced when a minority member is on the ballot but it happens other times. In 2004, Democrats were beside themselves in hatred for President Bush. I worried a bit about putting a Bush yard sign up for fear of inviting vandalism (with some reason since my sign was stolen). If an exit pollster had approached me on election day I was not going to announce my vote. A lot of others felt the same way. No minorities were involved but it still threw off the polls.

So, tell the pollsters what ever you want and vote your heart. That's why we have a secret ballot. (More on that later.)