What if a Democrat Wins?

It's the accepted wisdom that a Democrat will take the White House. The reasoning is that Democrats are united in their hatred of Bush and the Republicans, independents have turned on Republicans over the war, and the Reagan coalition has fractured.

So what if Hillary or Obama (or Edwards) wins?

Some sort of Health Care initiative will be introduced. It may or may not pass. After all, it seemed like health care's time had come when Bill and Hillary proposed it back in 1993.

After that... it's hard to say. There will certainly be some sort of attack on free trade and NAFTA. The Kyoto treaty will be sent to the Senate where it may or may not pass.

Then there's the war.

I predicted months ago that the Democrats would not actually vote to end the war. They want it as an issue. This backfired on them since the Surge is working. A Democratic president will have to explain why he is abandoning a winning strategy in favor of surrender and defeat.

The final thing that happens is that the current Democratic alliance will splinter. There are already signs of this happening. The net roots are really upset with the Democrats' performance in Congress. By now the war was supposed to have ended and Bush should have been impeached, thrown out of office, and be facing charges of treason (seriously, just look at Cindy Sheehan's public statements).

With Democrats controlling two of three branches of power, the net root will expect their progressive agenda to be implemented. It will not happen. Let's start with the war. Obama is promising to have everyone out within a year. This would be something between a retreat and a route. Assuming that Bush hasn't already signed a long-term commitment to protect Iraq, the next president will still find a military united against a fast pull-out. At various time, Hillary has talked about keeping up to 80,000 troops in Iraq long-term.

The rank and file will not accept it if we still have troops in Iraq January 1, 2009.

The candidates have been too loose in promises about trade, also. The unions will have a it over this one.

Then there's the environment. It's inevitable that some meaningless reforms will be enacted. These may not hae any real effect on CO2 emissions but they will still be painful. $3/gallon gas has hurt the economy. What will $5/gallon gas do? Or higher heating bills? Or rolling blackouts?

Regardless, there is no way to balance what is politically possible and what groups like Greenpeace are demanding.

Clinton managed to push the nation to the right within his first two years. He survived politically by moving to the right of his party. The net roots never forgave him for that but they weren't organized the way that they are now. The next Democrat president will not be able to triangulate. Four years from now we will find a Democratic party far more fractured than the Republicans are now.

Unless the Republicans win. Then we will find the Democrats biting off their own legs in frustration. But at least they will be united.