Iowa

There's no doubt who the big loser was in the Iowa caucus - Hillary. Given three candidates with interchangeable platforms, the voters went for the freshest face with Ms Experience coming in 3rd. Obama came out of it a winner, having established that he can win a contested race in a very white state. Edwards proved that he can still place second, something he did four years ago. This time it may not be enough to get him the #2 slot on the ballot.

It's a lot harder to say what it means for the Republicans. Iowa's Republicans are Huckabee's most sympathetic voters. A big percentage of them are evangelicals. Huckabee doesn't have much money and there is no time to raise more before the next round of primaries.

Also, the biggest dog in the fight wasn't there. Rudy gave Iowa a pass, preferring to concentrate on bigger states. This has never worked before but the rules have changed significantly. Everything is bunched up now. The old strategy was that the winner of the first couple of minor races could use his momentum to raise enough money to compete in the later, larger primaries. With a big cluster of primaries coming up in the next month, there isn't enough time to properly campaign in all of these states to say nothing of fund raising.

Also, Rudy's campaign has pointed out that voting in Florida has already begun. Many states now allow up to ten days for voting. A candidate who waits until just before the polls close will miss a lot of voters who already cast their ballots. Rudy is the only one going after the early voters.

Had Rudy shown up in Iowa he would likely have done poorly (slick New Yorker among the hicks and all that) and the pundits would be pronouncing his candidacy in as much trouble as Hillary's . By skipping Iowa, Rudy relieved himself of that headache. Instead of saying that he is in trouble, the pundits are wondering if his strategy will work. His strategy is risky but probably the soundest given the new realities of this year's primary schedule.