Global Warming 2008-style

Right now it is 16 degrees outside in Central Ohio. That's 40-50 degrees colder than last year. Many cities across the country got more snow in December than in all of last year. Some places set new records. That's how weather works. Sometimes its above average, other times its below.

But, last year some columnists were convinced that the warm spell was because of global warming and was how things would be from now on. Thomas Friedman quoted his wife as saying that she needed a global warming wardrobe - winter colors in spring weight fabric. I wonder how she's doing with that this year?

The trouble is that people (especially reporters) don't really understand what global warming means.  The world has warmed something like a degree in the last century. That's too small to notice. You have to look at the records to see it.

But global warming is a big story. Reporters want to be part of it. They want to be able to point at something and say that it is part of global warming. So they attribute anything unusual to global warming.

It's warm in December and January. The arctic has record low ice. Glaciers have retreated. It must all be due to global warming. Don't even look for other explanations. If someone suggests that there is an El Nino, that an ocean current periodically reverses and that this causes arctic melting or that glaciers have been retreating since the 18th century they are ignored since this message doesn't sell global warming.

Prophets of doom such as Al Gore are only too happy to encourage bad science reporting. They realized years ago that the reality of global warming wasn't very scary and that exaggeration was the only way to sell the public on extreme measure.

All of this becomes part of an information cascade. Global warming has become the accepted paradigm. Any warm weather is attributed to global warming while cold spells are just that.

Keep this in mind when you hear the weather forecast.