Has Obama Bottomed Out?

In the last week I have seen several columns speculating that President Obama's popularity has bottomed out and will rise again. Here is the most recent by Howard Fineman. So, is there anything to this?

Fineman mentions Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton so let's take a quick look at their presidencies. For Reagan, and Clinton, you need to understand the Misery Index. This is created by adding the inflation and unemployment rates together. It isn't exactly scientific but it still gives an idea of the forces behind an election. During the 1970s and early 1980s the Misery Index was very high. It's highest point ever was during 1980, just before the election. This is why Reagan won. While the Misery Index in general had declined by the 1982 mid-term election, unemployment was rising again. The Democrats ran against Reagan's tax and budget cuts. By the 1984 election, the Misery Index was down to its lowest point since the early 1970s and unemployment was the lowest it had been since the 1960s. At the same time, the Democrats ran Walter Mondale who had been Jimmy Carter's Vice President. Reagan won in both 1980 and in 1984 by asking voters if they were better off than they had been four years ago. Because of economic conditions, Reagan never had to moderate his position.

Clinton was a different case. The Misery Index was fairly stable throughout his presidency. The 1994 mid-term election cannot be attributed to economics. After his mid-term loss, Clinton made a shift to the center. He also won a showdown with Newt Gingrich. The Republicans helped by running Bob Dole. Dole was a long-time Senator and just as burdened by this as John Kerry was in 2004. He had run as Gerald Ford's Vice President and was tainted by that association as well.

So what does this say about Obama's chances? Not much. Like Reagan, Obama came into office during an economic crisis. Unlike Reagan, the economy under Obama may not recover by the mid-term. It is almost impossible for the economy to rebound enough to recreate the lost jobs or the wealth that was lost in the stoke market. Obama has other problems. He ran a feel-good campaign that was short on promises and allowed the voters to project their own hopes onto him. That left many voters feeling disenchanted.

Fineman thinks that passing Health Care will help Obama. It will not. Putting Health Care ahead of economic recovery was a major blunder on Obama's part. The longer he reminds people of this the worse it will be for him, especially if unemployment stays above eight percent or inflation starts to rise.

I think that there is a lot of wishful thinking in the "Obama will rise again" columns. No one gives any reasons why this should happen. They just speculate that Obama's popularity can't keep sinking forever. In fact, the deck is stacked against Obama. The housing market will take years, maybe decades to recover. Credit is still tight. People are reluctant to borrow and spend. Other countries are still having major problems which affects the world economy. The deficit is becoming an issue that will not go away. Social Security is no longer generating surpluses that can he used to offset deficit spending. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have gone on so long that the nation is exhausted by them. There will be no victory parades when the troops pull out.

In fact, given all of the conditions in the world, it is hard to see how any president could succeed. With a record of arrogance and stubbornness and surrounded by sycophants who are unwilling to convince him to change course, Obama's presidency seems doomed.

He does have two chances. One is to learn from the mid-term election losses and triangulate. His other hope is that the Republicans run an uninspiring candidate. The Republicans are being pushed to change from the party of values to the party of fiscal restraint. It is unclear if they have any candidates who can appeal to both wings.