Health Care - Whats Next for the Democrats?

President Obama and Nancy Pelosi are sure that now that health care passed, the voters will come to love it. They mentioned "history" many times in the final push. Obviously they see themselves going down alongside FDR. They expect that this will become another unkillable federal entitlement like Social Security. I've seen speculation in places like Huffington that this will drive a stake through the heart of the Republican Party. There are two problems with this.

First, there is the economy. For the next several years, ever time a company lays off employees or goes out of business, they are going to blame Obamacare. If the worst happens and the economy drops into a double-dip recession, everyone will blame Obamacare. With unemployment projected to be over 8% for some time to come, this will be a millstone around the Democrats' necks. Their only hope is a stronger recovery than anyone expects. This has its own dangers. Too strong a recovery could lead to another bust.

The second problem is the bill. The bills for Social Security and Medicare were put off for generations. They are coming due now. Social Security is beginning to cash in the special bonds that its surplus has been invested in. This has to be paid from the general fund. Medicare will be next. We are already in danger of following Britain and Greece into unsustainable debts. History tells us that the promised cuts in Medicare will never happen and that the expected taxes will be insufficient. At some point, and probably soon, the welfare state is going to have to be scaled back. That will be painful and the Republicans will blame the Democrats. Long-term, this is as likely to drive a stake through the heart of the Democrats as the Republicans.

In the meantime, outraged Republicans are going to be energized.