While web-surfing last night I saw an argument that a Bush lose would help the conservatives. No matter what the ABBers say, Bush is largely a tax-break and spend, moderate instead of a limited government Reaganite. The theory is that four years out of power during the Carter days caused Republicans to regroup under Reagan.
There are several problems with this theory. The biggest is that being out of power makes a party settle. Eight year out under Clinton and the Republicans settled on Bush even though his reputation in 2000 was as a moderate. Twelve years out of power and the Democrats settled for Clinton, also a moderate. The biggest qualification for the current Democratic challenger was not "Do I represent the party", it was "Do I stand the best chance of beating Bush?" That is how Kerry got the nomination.
So, if Bush loses, the next candidate will be even more moderate.
Speaking of Kerry, how many people actually know where he stands on the issues? Most Kerry supporters think that he thinks the same as they do. Test yourself. Is Kerry for or against the following issues:
- Troops in Iraq
- Global Warming
- Off-shoring of workers
- Bush's tax breaks
- Preemptive wars
- For it. He would like to see more foreign troops in Iraq but he is on record as being against a pull-out even if we don't get and foreign help.
- For it (against Kyoto). His energy policy calls for cheaper oil prices. This means more emissions. He also wants to burn more coal and natural gas.
- For it as long as there are no tax advantages.
- For them for most of the population. This is one of Kerry's nuanced views since he wants to repeal them for people making more than $200,000 and give even more to people making less than that. Many of his other proposals would help the "rich"
- For them although he would ask for more foreign (French and German) support.
(All answers either taken from Kerry's web site or from direct interviews with the candidate.)
So what are we left with? The ABB conviction that even if Kerry makes the same choices as George Bush, things would somehow turn out better because Kerry isn't Bush.